Oklahoma City?s Developmental Approach to Rebuilding: Can It Work? (Part 1)

August 18, 2008

For most NBA fans, it’s no secret that the Oklahoma City franchise will likely be forced to endure another losing season and trip to the lottery after the 2008-09 season.

Perhaps less widely acknowledged is that it will probably be their fourth consecutive losing season, and their sixth losing season in the last seven.

In other words, this franchise’s struggles pre-date Clay Bennett, the somewhat unexpected departures of Ray Allen and Rashard Lewis last summer, and ex-coach Bob Hill’s stagnant offensive sets. This team has been struggling for a while, and they can’t be expected to recapture the magic of the 90s, when they were a playoff team for eight consecutive seasons.

So this situation inherited by Oklahoma City raises a question of interest to many teams stuck in mediocrity around the league—what is the most effective way to rebuild a franchise? And barring any further major offseason transactions, how do we evaluate Oklahoma City’s front office entering the second year of Sam Presti’s tenure?

Given that they’ve been particularly difficult to watch over the last three seasons, some people might be a little bewildered by their recent approach of purging productive veterans from the roster and accumulating future draft picks.

Since most reasonable people evaluate the success of a professional sports team based on the number of wins they accumulate, this franchise might appear to be profoundly confused. In fact, with such dramatic changes, it sometimes appears that they are trying not to win.

Thus far, what we can say for sure is that OKC’s approach is to accumulate young talent to build around while clearing out as many veteran contracts as possible.

What we can infer is that they not only have faith in rebuilding through the draft, but they also have faith in their ability to clear out enough cap room by 2010 to sign a significant free agent.

What is the value of salary cap room?

Looking at their current contracts -- including the future first-round draft choices they currently hold -- OKC only has around $25 million in salary committed to the 2010-11 season right now.

So if they were only to sign short-term contracts between now and 2010—and that seems to be the way they’re going—they would obviously have enough to sign more than one impact free agent, and keep Kevin Durant and Jeff Green around, if they so please.

Of course, cap room is only a means, although some fans seem to considerate an end. In his recent evaluation of the three-way trade between OKC, Cleveland, and Milwaukee, economist Dave Berri wrote the following about their cap-clearing strategy:

"Oklahoma City does get cap relief from this move. Cap relief, though, by itself, doesn’t win games. Games are won because you acquire productive players. You can do this via draft choices and/or free agency. But just having the opportunity to select players—as we see if we review past draft choices and free agent selections that failed—is not good enough."

Berri makes an excellent point that is often lost on fans of struggling teams, who hope that cap room will change their team’s fortunes sometime in the future. In fact, in economic terms, it could be considered irrational to forgo the opportunity to acquire and retain productive players in pursuit of a player(s) who may or may not want to come to a struggling team anyway.

However, I think there’s another perspective on Oklahoma’s rebuilding process worth exploring, that does not involve an assessment strictly on short-term wins.

Certainly, I would agree that just creating cap room for the sake of cap room is unwise. But instead of just praying for a savior to fall into their laps, what if a team created cap room with a specific direction and specific targets in mind?

What if a franchise actually had a long-term vision, and laid out a realistic plan for realizing that specific vision?

A developmental approach to rebuilding

As I look at Oklahoma City’s “progress” over the past year, what I see is a franchise with a vision, a young core to serve as the foundation for the vision, and the opportunity to bring that vision to fruition in 2010 with the acquisition of the right free agents—but not necessarily a team chasing a savior.

Oklahoma City is taking a developmental approach to rebuilding their team, in contrast to the Celtics’ rapid turnaround approach. But how do we assess this team from a developmental perspective when it looks like they won’t be winning much? Perhaps by refining the two questions asked above:

First, what type of foundation are they building around their current centerpiece of Kevin Durant?

Second, how might they be able to transform their salary cap room into productive players that complement that vision in 2010?

A foundation built around Kevin Durant

Kevin Durant was one of the most highly-rated prospects coming out of college in years, according to John Hollinger’s draft rater—so it makes sense that OKC would make him the centerpiece of their franchise.

However, Berri and others have written extensively about how Durant is overrated because he’s a one-dimensional scorer right now. While there’s no disputing that, having a pure scorer is not a bad thing if you surround him with players that can do other things—and that looks to be what OKC is doing.

Jeff Green was drafted as Durant’s sidekick and figured to be the perfect utility player to complement Durant—he’s a heady player that can do a little of everything on the floor at either forward position.

However, if we look at the Arbitrarian’s NBA playing styles spectrum, it’s interesting that statistically Green ended up being more of an scoring interior player—meaning he did more scoring and rebounding than assisting or stealing.

The problem with having an interior scorer next to a pure scorer (Durant) is that you end up with an imbalanced roster—players are scoring for themselves at various levels of efficiency, but nobody is out there focusing on the little things like making the extra pass or setting screens.

OKC needs to Green to be that utility player or “glue guy” in order to become a more cohesive team. In looking at Green’s skill set that seems very possible—it’s probably a matter of both players developing individually, and establishing chemistry with one other.

There was another problem that the team faced in Seattle. Durant is a great scorer and Green can be a great utility player, but they did not have anyone on the team last year who could create baskets off the dribble—and that is a must for any successful basketball team at any level.

Durant gets the majority of his points by shooting over his defenders at shooting guard—which is why his field goal percentage is so low—and Green got a lot of points by making smart cuts to the basket, and doing the little things inside to college garbage points.

However, their offense often became stagnant because a) Durant was the only player on the team who could get shots consistently and b) they didn’t put very much pressure on the defense, because for the most part their offense involved getting the ball to Durant and watching him shoot.

Enter Russell Westbrook

What Westbrook brings is the ability to drive to the basket and hopefully force the defense to collapse, leaving Durant and Green in better position to score more often. With a different type of weapon on offense, suddenly the defense has pressure on them to respond to multiple options rather than focusing entirely on Durant.

In fact, this is similar to what Maurice Williams brings to Cavaliers, though to a lesser extent—Durant is no LeBron and Westbrook is (not yet) Williams.

Although Westbrook did not play the point guard position full-time at UCLA, he is an unselfish player. If he can develop his play-making skills, this could be a deadly trio for years to come.

This is why I thought that Jerryd Bayless was such a good fit for OKC—he’s not only a better shooter, which would be useful to take some of the scoring burden off Durant, but he also has more experience as a playmaker.

But OKC is hoping that, over time, Westbrook’s ability to fly up and down the court and relentlessly attack the basket will be enough to add a new dimension to their offense and relieve some of the pressure on Durant—hopefully allowing him to take higher percentage shots.

Of course, this is all speculation—because a lot depends on the development of the players and their chemistry. But from what we know right now, this is a great foundation for the future, assuming each player develops as expected.

And with a solid foundation, they can look to fill in the holes via free agency.

Click here to see Part 2: Forecasting 2010 for OKC.

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NBA 2009 Season Prediction: Oklahoma City

August 17, 2008

I apologize for the lateness of this article, my second installment in my 2009 NBA Prediction series. Computer problems have plagued my available times to write. I am back now, along with my articles.

This second installment deals with the formerly known Seattle Supersonics, who this past summer, successfully relocated to Oklahoma City, OK. There is no definite nickname in place for this team at present.

When predicting how a team might fare in a season, one must look at said team's roster, draft choices in previous years, and the division that said team plays in.

It has been rumored that Oklahoma City will play in the Southwest Division of the Western Conference, along with New Orleans, San Antonio, Dallas, Houston, and Memphis. Aside from the Grizzlies, this division can be considered one of the toughest in the league, if not the toughest. With the Grizzlies' acquisition of O.J. Mayo, the team has new life breathed into them, and the matchups throughout the season, of Memphis vs OKC, will be very interesting to watch, these two teams will most likely finish No. 5 and No. 6 in the division.

We now must look at the draft choices of this franchise in recent years. In the 2008 NBA Draft, Seattle selected UCLA Guard Russell Westbrook with the 4th pick, Spaniard Serge Ibaka with the 24th pick, California Center DeVon Hardin with the 50th pick, and Kansas Center Sasha Kaun with the 56th pick.

Last year, the Supersonics selected Texas Guard/Forward Kevin Durant with the 2nd pick, and Georgetown Forward Jeff Green with the 5th pick.

Looking at just the three best picks, Durant, Westbrook, and Green, the talent level on the team greatly increased. The Sonics also have veteran F/C in Kansas' Nick Collison, who brings leadership and experience.

Oklahoma City has also just traded for Desmond Mason, Joe Smith, and Kyle Weaver. Mason and Smith bring veteran experience, and leadership to the team, while Weaver, a rookie out of Washington State, brings more spark and raw talent to the team. However, Oklahoma City had to let go their best point guard in Luke Ridnour, and one of their few vetrans in Adrian Griffin. If they could've made the trade without letting Ridnour go, the franchise would be in much better shape. Here is my predicting starting lineup for OKC.

Starting Lineup:

PG: Russel Westbrook

Note: Even though he is only a rookie, Westbrook has Earl Watson beat in so many categories, that Watson would learn from Westbrook rather than the other way.

SG: Desmond Mason

SF: Kevin Durant

PF: Joe Smith

C: Nick Collison

Note: This roster is loaded with centers, although most of them, except for Robert Swift, are untested. Collison is listed as a F/C, and needing Smith to play PF is vital to bring leadership, experience, and knowledge to the team.

Second Team:

PG: Earl Watson

SG: Kyle Weaver

SF: Damien Wilkins

PF: Jeff Green

C: Robert Swift

Other Notable Players

Donyell Marshall: F, 14 years of experience, brings veteran leadership to tea

Prediction:

OKC, will not make the playoffs this season, and will struggle to keep out of last place in whatever division they are put in. Although this team does have a package of veteran leadership, and young talent, it will not be enough to succeed in the extremely difficult Western Conference. Also, the relocation will have an affect on the team. Every player starts out the same this season -- it will be their first season playing in Oklahoma City. After maybe two or three more years, expect this team to be playoff contenders. This team has not played together long enough to succeed.

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Why Is LeBron James Unhappy About the Mo Williams Trade?

August 15, 2008

Somewhere in Beijing, LeBron James is doing a very unenthusiastic golf clap.

This clap is directed towards Cavaliers GM Danny Ferry for acquiring Mo Williams from the Bucks in a three-team trade on Wednesday, but it is unenthusiastic because this move will not put Cleveland securely in the top four of the Eastern Conference.

Boston, Detroit, and Orlando are still clearly above them and the acquisitions of Elton Brand in Philadelphia and Jermaine O’Neal in Toronto have moved them slightly ahead of the Cavaliers. Another scary thought for Ferry is the possibility of “King James” leaving after his contract is up because the GM did not put enough talent around the Akron, Ohio native.

In return for Williams, the Cavs sent guard Damon Jones to Milwaukee and Joe Smith to Oklahoma City. Milwaukee also sent Desmond Mason to Oklahoma City, and in return they received Luke Ridnour and Adrian Griffin. That leaves Cleveland getting Mo Williams, Milwaukee receiving Luke Ridnour, Damon Jones, and Adrian Griffin, and Oklahoma City getting Joe Smith and Desmond Mason.

From Cleveland’s perspective, acquiring Williams is an upgrade at the point guard position. Unlike most people, I do not think that it is a huge upgrade.

Sure, Williams put up good numbers in Milwaukee last year, averaging 17.2 points per game and 6.3 assists while shooting 48 percent from the field. He is only 25 years old and should be hitting the prime of his career.

Those are all great things, but I really think Cleveland already had a very similar player. Daniel Gibson is still only 22 years old, and poised to have a breakout season if he is putting the work in. I believe he is, because with much improvement brings an extension and his overall love for James inspires him to work hard.

Gibson also caters more to Lebron’s game. He is a spot-up shooter who shot 44 percent from three-point range last year. He also shows flashes of the ability to get to the rim, and with time will be on Williams' level.

Another negative about Williams' game is that he has to have the ball to be effective. The problem is, LeBron has the ball in his hands most of the game.

The trade also created an even bigger hole at the power forward position. By getting rid of Joe Smith the Cavs, have absolutely no scorers at the position. Ben Wallace’s skill set seems to be declining weekly, and he never has been a scorer. His backup, Anderson Varejao, gets called Side Show Bob more times in a game than he scores points.

If Ferry thinks that rookie J.J. Hickson is the answer because he had a great summer league, remember that only Al Horford last year and Emeka Okafor in 2005 have had substantial impacts at the power forward position. It will be at least three years before Hickson makes big contributions.

At first glance, it looks like Milwaukee will be taking a step backwards at the point guard position, but that is not the case. After acquiring Richard Jefferson from the Nets to go along with Michael Redd, Andrew Bogut, and Charlie Villanueva, the Bucks had no need for a shoot-first point guard.

Yes, the Bucks could have received more talent for Williams and the expiring contract of Desmond Mason—but when you are a GM sometimes the decision isn’t yours.

The Bucks are still fine at the point guard position. While Williams was hurt in the final 17 games last year, the Bucks received huge contributions from their second-round pick out of University Nevada-Reno, Ramon Sessions.

Sessions is the perfect fit for what Scott Skiles is trying to do in Milwaukee. He is a pass-first point who averaged 7.5 assists per game, while only averaging 26 minutes a night. That will complement the scorers the Bucks have perfectly.

He has good size at 6’3”, and the ability to play very good defense. He also shot the three at a 42-percent clip—which will pay big dividends when Bogut, Jefferson, and Redd get doubled.

If, by chance, Sessions struggles in only his second year in the league, the Bucks have a very respectable guy in Ridnour who also fits the pass-first mold. Ridnour’s numbers did slip last year, but he only played 20 minutes per night and was being fazed out of Oklahoma City’s future.

When Seattle was a respectable team in 2006, Ridnour had his best season, averaging 11.5 points and seven assists. I look to see more of that Luke, with his minutes going up and a strong team surrounding him. Redd and Jefferson will love his penetration, which will leave them open from three.

The acquisition of the self-titled “best shooter in the world” will probably be short lived. I don’t expect Jones to make the Bucks' opening-night roster.

Adrian Griffin will add a short spurt of defense at the three, but won’t see many minutes with Jefferson, Villanueva, and rookies Joe Alexander and Luc Mbah a Moute eating most of them.

What Sam Presti is doing in the Pacific Northwest—sorry, what Sam Presti is doing in Oklahoma City has the future looking brighter and brighter by the day.

The GM of the Oklahoma City ______ (you fill in the blank) has been making every right move since he was appointed GM in June of 2007. The past two drafts have brought him the cornerstone of their franchise (Kevin Durant) and loads of talent that fit perfectly with Durant. Presti has made trades that make him look like a genius and the GM on the other side—well, less of one.

This trade is no different. By getting rid of Ridnour and Griffin and getting Smith and Mason, Oklahoma City shaved $6.6 million dollars off their payroll. Not to mention both Smith and Mason have expiring contracts that will have Oklahoma City close to $30 million under the cap next year—and they can also be traded for picks.

That money could put them over the top, with the possibility of Kobe Bryant, Carlos Boozer, Shawn Marion, and Allen Iverson becoming free agents next year. They could also save it for Chris Bosh, Amare Stoudemire, Yao Ming, Dwyane Wade, or Lebron James in 2010.

Smith, the former number-one draft pick in '95, has bounced around the league throughout his career, but is very effective on the offensive end. I see him sharing a lot of minutes with Nick Collison, and will probably be dealt before the deadline to a contender—where he will be perfect coming off the bench.

Mason is coming home to where he played his college ball as an Oklahoma State Cowboy, and back to the franchise with which he won the dunk contest in 2001.

Mason is now 30 and has seen his minutes dip over the past couple of years. He still is very athletic, but won’t see much time on this team that is trying to get its youngsters experience.

Now, back to the saga of LeBron James' free agency in 2010. This is not the move that is going to keep LeBron in Cleveland. Many teams have more young talent than the Cavaliers, and they are setting up their contracts to have cap money cleared to pursue the star of the league.

Cleveland still has $20 million in expiring contracts—and they better make a bigger splash than this if they have any hope of keeping LeBron. They desperately need someone in the post that is going to draw some attention.

Kobe has Pau and Bynum now. Dwyane Wade had Shaq and now has Beasley. Magic had Kareem. LeBron doesn’t need someone of that high of caliber—but just a step below will get the job done. If Danny Ferry doesn’t want to see his resume up on Monster.com after the summer of 2010, he will get LeBron his man.

Usually after a deal like this, you have winners and losers. The big winner of this deal is Oklahoma City, which is usually the case in a Sam Presti trade. They freed up cap space and got rid of a guy that was not going to see the floor with them.

Cleveland slightly upgraded their point guard position, but downgraded their power forwards. So they are like a rifle shooter at the Olympics that got fifth place, but two competitors ahead of him were doping so he gets the bronze (Who dopes in shooting?). They got a medal but they are not a winner.

Milwaukee did not get the talent a trade for Williams was capable of brining in, but it frees up shots for their more heavily-compensated players, and that is a good thing in the end. This move won’t shake the earth right now, but it could in a couple of years.

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SuperSonics Team Report (Yahoo! Sports)

August 15, 2008

Fans in Oklahoma City will get the first glimpse of their new professional basketball team on Oct. 29.

The NBA announced its 2008-09 schedule this week, and Oklahoma City opens its inaugural season at home against the Milwaukee Bucks, then hits the road for a single game at Houston on Nov. 1 before returning home to face Minnesota the next day and the defending-champion Boston Celtics on Nov. 5.

Other highlights on the season schedule include a back-to-back series with the New Orleans Hornets, whom the city hosted for two seasons when Hurricane Katrina ravaged New Orleans. Oklahoma City will host the Hornets in the team's only nationally televised game on Nov. 21, then travel to New Orleans to face the Hornets the next day.